AGP Executive Report

Somalia–Stability Funding: Somalia and international partners approved the Somali Stability Fund’s fourth-year work plan (SSF III), backing a government-led push on conciliation, local governance, social cohesion, and stronger institutions. Sool Conflict: The federal government urged an immediate end to fighting in Adhi-Adeeye, Sool, calling for civilian protection and reconciliation through elders and dialogue. Puntland Appointments: Puntland’s parliament approved newly appointed ministers and granted them immunity, clearing the way for them to take office—though some communities criticized the appointment process. Counterterrorism: The U.S. resumed air strikes in Somalia after a brief pause, targeting Al-Shabaab locations in southern areas including around Kismayo, saying operations aim to keep pressure on militants alongside Somali forces. Regional Security/Policy: Libya’s eastern administration banned entry for nationals of Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia, citing border reorganization and migration control. International Diplomacy: Somalia welcomed the U.S.-Iran peace deal as a step toward regional stability, while Pakistan’s Foreign Office said the world recognizes Pakistan’s constructive role in the U.S.-Iran talks.

U.S.-Iran Diplomacy: Somalia’s Foreign Ministry welcomed the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, calling it a step toward de-escalation, dialogue, and regional stability, and urged good-faith implementation to protect civilians and freedom of navigation. Counterterrorism: AFRICOM says the U.S. resumed air strikes in Somalia after a month-long pause, conducting operations on five days targeting Al-Shabaab strongholds around Kismayo, to support Somali forces’ ongoing campaign. Federal-State Politics: In Baidoa, South West State leader Adan Madobe met UN officials to discuss governance, state-building, reconciliation, and stability, with the UN pledging continued support for inclusive political processes. Mogadishu Policing: Somali police arrested Hassan Elmi Bootaan over an alleged video advertising houses with claims that buyers would receive a woman to marry, warning against content that degrades women or undermines public trust. Regional Security Signals: Yemen’s Ansarullah warned that any Israeli military presence in Somalia’s territorial waters would be treated as a legitimate target, escalating rhetoric around Red Sea security.

Diplomacy: Somalia’s foreign minister Ali Mohamed Omar met Qatar’s Arab counterparts in Amman, while Minister of State Sultan bin Saad Al Muraikhi held talks with Libya’s Taher Salem Al Baour and Somalia’s Ali Mohamed Omar on boosting cooperation. Security & counterterrorism: The U.S. resumed airstrikes in Somalia after a month lull, hitting al-Shabaab targets in the south, including near Kismayo, as AFRICOM said it is coordinating with Somali forces. Somalia governance & development: UNDP launched a 2026-2030 program in Mogadishu, aiming to mobilize about $306.7m and focus on governance, jobs, and resilience, with at least 15% of budgets for gender work. Telecom infrastructure: Somalia’s National Communications Authority and the IFC opened the first Somalia Submarine Cable Landing Technical Working Group workshop in Nairobi to improve broadband resilience and regulation. Human rights & public order: Somali police arrested a man in Mogadishu over a housing video allegedly promising buyers a woman to marry, citing violations of public morals and women’s dignity. Regional tensions: Yemen’s Ansarullah warned that any Israeli military presence in Somaliland/Somali waters would be treated as a “legitimate target,” escalating rhetoric around Red Sea security. Israel-Somaliland claims: Reports say Israel deployed about 50 troops to Somaliland after recognition, though Israel denies bases and says training cooperation continues.

Somalia–Kenya Diplomacy: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made an unannounced stop in Kenya for face-to-face talks with President William Ruto in Narok, as leaders weigh security risks and worries over AUSSOM funding and the transition of federal institutions. Counterterrorism: After a monthlong lull, U.S. airstrikes in southern Somalia resumed, with AFRICOM reporting four strikes against al-Shabab between June 14–19 near Kismayo and the lower Juba region. Federal Politics in the Spotlight: Heavy fighting erupted in Baidoa as forces loyal to former Southwest leader Abdiaziz Laftagareen clashed with federal troops, deepening tensions after Southwest State leadership changes. Human Rights at Home: Somalia’s Family and Human Rights Ministry condemned an alleged assault on a Somali girl after viral footage, calling for arrests and court action. Development & Connectivity: UNDP launched a 5-year Somalia program (2026–2030) focused on governance, jobs, and resilience, while Somalia’s National Communications Authority and the IFC opened a submarine cable technical working group in Nairobi to improve broadband reliability. Israel–Somaliland Security Fallout: Reports claim Israel deployed about 50 troops to Somaliland after recognition, while Somalia’s government continues to protest the Israel link.

AU Diplomacy: Somalia officially took a seat on the African Union Peace and Security Council for the first time since 2003, with a flag-raising ceremony marking a two-year term and a push for deeper continental role in conflict prevention and stability. Regional Security Talks: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made an unannounced visit to Kenya for high-level talks with William Ruto, with discussions focused on Somalia’s political and security situation amid electoral uncertainty and regional troop deployments. Somalia-Kenya Security Cooperation: In a separate meeting in Narok, the two presidents agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation on maritime security and counterterrorism, including intelligence sharing against Al-Shabaab. UNFPA Partnership: Mogadishu’s Youth and Sports Ministry met UNFPA’s new Somalia representative to expand programs for youth empowerment and women’s sports. Hiiraan Clan Violence: Somalia’s acting president and Interior ministry both urged an immediate end to renewed fighting in Jalalaqsi, warning against incitement and misinformation. Federal Rift Watch: Reports say Puntland has escalated troop deployments to block federal troop movement, raising fears of armed confrontation between Mogadishu and Puntland. Electoral Deadlock: Somalia’s opposition backed a transitional direct-elections model blending direct voting with the 4.5 clan power-sharing system, while other political groups criticized recent Banadir and Southwest elections over irregularities and transparency gaps. Israel-Somaliland Tensions: Somalia’s foreign affairs state minister denied claims of a secret Israel visit, as debate continues over Israel’s growing ties with Somaliland and Somalia’s sovereignty concerns.

AU Diplomacy: Somalia has taken a seat on the African Union Peace and Security Council for the first time, with Ambassador Abdullahi Warfaa raising the Somali flag at the council’s headquarters, a move officials say boosts Mogadishu’s role in conflict prevention and regional stability. Presidential Outreach: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made an unannounced trip to Kenya for talks with President William Ruto as Somalia’s electoral and political tensions keep rising, with regional leaders pushing for an agreement to protect stability and international support. Electoral Deadlock: Somalia’s main opposition, the Somali Future Council, backed a Transitional Direct Elections Model that combines direct voting with the 4.5 clan power-sharing system, and says it has shared the plan with the US and EU to unblock the crisis. Parliament Transition: The House of the People began a leadership handover after former speaker Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur Madobe became president of South West State; First Deputy Speaker Sadia Yasin Haji Samatar will act as speaker until a new election. Federal vs Puntland Tensions: Puntland and the federal government are edging toward confrontation as Mogadishu expands deployments and appoints a new SNA commander in Garowe, raising fears the security fight against al-Shabaab and ISIS could be disrupted. Israel-Somaliland Rift: Somalia’s foreign ministry state minister Ali Balcad denied reports of a secret Israel visit, amid continued controversy over Israel’s growing ties with Somaliland and claims of possible military cooperation. Security on the Ground: Somalia’s interior ministry called for an immediate end to deadly clan fighting in Jalalaqsi, warning against incitement and online messages that could inflame tensions. Development Finance: Somalia and the Islamic Development Bank signed a three-year framework worth $45 million for 2026–2028, targeting energy and agriculture plus health and skills for women and youth.

Inter-Clan Violence in Hiraan: Somalia’s Ministry of Interior called for an immediate, unconditional halt to deadly fighting in Jalalaqsi district, warning against incitement and threatening legal action over inflammatory social media posts as civilians face deaths, injuries, arson, looting, and displacement. Federal–Puntland Rift: Puntland officials say Mogadishu is expanding its military presence in a sensitive period, after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appointed Jimale Jama as commander of the 54th Division in Garowe—raising fears the political-security dispute could disrupt operations against ISIS and Al Shabaab. Parliament Leadership Transition: Sadia Yasin Haji Samatar was sworn in as acting Speaker of Somalia’s lower house after Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur Madobe became President of South West State. Development Finance: Somalia and the Islamic Development Bank signed a three-year cooperation framework for $45 million (2026–2028) focused on energy/agriculture and health and skills for women and youth. Education Push: Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre launched the 2026 national secondary school exams with 44,136 students sitting across 158 centers in 58 districts. Electoral Deadlock Proposal: The Somali Future Council backed a Transitional Direct Elections Model combining direct voting with the 4.5 clan power-sharing system, aiming to end stalled elections. Oil Policy Ahead of Drilling: The IMF urged Somalia to reform its petroleum fiscal regime to better capture state returns as offshore exploration activity ramps up. Human Rights Legal Challenge: Somalia’s 10th Independent Human Rights Commission appointment faces questions over whether it violates the commission’s 2016 founding law.

Hiraan Violence: Somalia’s Ministry of Interior called for an immediate, unconditional halt to deadly clan fighting in Jalalaqsi, warning against targeted attacks and online incitement as clashes drive deaths, injuries, arson, looting and displacement. Federal–Puntland Rift: Puntland officials accuse Mogadishu of expanding military presence at a sensitive moment, after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appointed Jimale Jama to command the 54th Division in Garowe—raising fears the security dispute could spill into counterterror operations. Elections Deadlock: The Somali Future Council says it has approved a Transitional Direct Elections Model, proposing direct voting for MPs while keeping the 4.5 clan power-sharing seat allocation, and urging a faster path out of the electoral impasse. Education Push: Somalia launched the 2026 national secondary school exams in Mogadishu; 44,136 students sit tests across 158 centres in 58 districts. Humanitarian Pressure: UN-linked reporting warns acute hunger could worsen in Somalia’s Bay region and other hotspots between June and November, as conflict and climate shocks strain aid. Somaliland–Israel Ties: Somaliland’s leadership says relations with Israel have “no limits,” leaving open a future Israeli military base as Jerusalem hosts Somaliland’s president and formal cooperation expands.

Somalia–Elections & Security: Somalia’s NISA intelligence chief, Mahad Mohamed Salad, arrived in Galmudug for talks with President Ahmed Abdi Kariye “Qoorqoor” as tensions rise over political participation and party alignment ahead of regional electoral processes, with Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre reportedly preparing a visit to help de-escalate. Federal–Regional Power Struggle: Puntland’s cabinet says it is not part of Somalia’s national army and bars non-Puntland forces and vehicles, rejecting Hassan Sheikh’s post-term status—an escalation tied to accusations that Mogadishu recruits and funds militias in Puntland under a “54th Division” label. Diplomacy & Sovereignty: Somaliland’s president Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi arrived in Jerusalem for a high-profile state visit after Israel recognized Somaliland, with a strategic cooperation agreement signed as Israel frames the move around Red Sea security and Horn of Africa influence. Piracy Hostages: Families of 10 Pakistani sailors held by Somali pirates protested in Karachi, demanding stronger diplomatic action and warning that negotiations are stalled while the captives remain in custody. Regional Finance & Resources: At the IsDB annual meetings in Baku, IsDB approved a Somalia country engagement framework for 2026–2028 worth $45m, while AzerGold met Somalia’s development and reconstruction bank director general to discuss mineral mapping and attracting investors. Humanitarian/Conflict Watch: The UN warned Sudan’s RSF could imminently lay siege to el-Obeid in North Kordofan, raising fears of mass atrocities amid fuel shortages and intensified shelling.

Federal-State Tensions: Somalia’s NISA intelligence chief Mahad Mohamed Salad arrived in Galmudug for talks with President Ahmed Abdi Kariye “Qoorqoor,” as election and party-alignment disputes sharpen ahead of electoral reforms. Puntland Pushback: Puntland ordered that only Puntland troops and vehicles may operate in its territory, reiterating it is not part of the national army without a deal with Mogadishu. Child Protection Alarm: A UN report says 38,558 grave violations against children were recorded in 2025, and for the first time government forces were the main perpetrators, with Israel topping the list of grave violations. Somalia’s External Security Pressure: Reports say Somali pirates raised ransom demands for Egyptian sailors from $2m to $3m, extending a hostage crisis with negotiations stalled. Blue Economy & Marine Science: Somalia’s fisheries minister signed a joint declaration at the Our Ocean conference to strengthen marine research and protect ocean data independence. Regional Diplomacy: Somalia’s ambassador to Pakistan joined Africa Day events, urging deeper Somalia-Pakistan cooperation in trade, education, culture, and security.

Somalia Electoral Reform: Somalia’s opposition Somali Future Council says it has agreed an alternative electoral roadmap after hours of talks in Mogadishu, aiming for a faster, more inclusive process within 90 days and to brief international partners. Puntland Security: Puntland ordered that only Puntland forces may operate or move in its territory, warning of legal action against non-Puntland troops and vehicles as federal-state tensions over security institutions continue. Somaliland-Israel Row: Somalia’s cabinet condemned Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro’s Jerusalem visit and Israel engagement as a sovereignty violation, while IGAD reiterated support for Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity. Child Protection Alarm: A UN report says nearly 25,000 children were harmed by record conflict violations in 2025, with government forces named as the main perpetrators for the first time. Humanitarian Pressure: UN food agencies warn acute hunger will worsen in Somalia and other hotspots as funding gaps and climate shocks rise. Local Economy Shock: In Baidoa, traders increasingly refuse damaged Somali shillings, crushing small businesses and leaving families without income.

Somalia’s Elections: Opposition leaders in Mogadishu wrapped talks on an alternative electoral roadmap, aiming for an inclusive, constitutionally compliant process within 90 days and planning to brief international partners. Federal-State Tensions: Puntland issued a directive restricting non-Puntland forces from operating or moving in its territory, warning of legal action and stressing unresolved constitutional and security issues with Villa Somalia. Regional Diplomacy: IGAD reiterated support for Somalia’s sovereignty after reports of Somaliland opening an embassy in Jerusalem, warning such moves could heighten tensions and undermine regional peace. Somaliland-Israel Links: Israel’s defense minister said cooperation with Somaliland has existed “under the radar” for years and both sides want to expand ties; Somaliland’s president also left the door open to a future Israeli military base. Security on the Ground: Reporting says al-Shabaab’s offensive is exploiting Mogadishu’s political fragmentation, re-infiltrating areas and undoing earlier gains. Maritime & Fisheries Governance: At the Our Ocean Conference in Mombasa, Somalia joined the Mombasa Declaration to push fisheries transparency and fight illegal fishing through better data sharing and vessel registry reforms. Humanitarian Outlook: FAO and WFP launched a $202m anticipatory action appeal for El Niño risks, warning droughts and floods could threaten 8.8m people across 22 high-risk countries, including Somalia. Sports & Identity: Somalia’s U-17 women made history at CECAFA with a record 8–2 win over Sudan, including the first Somali international hat-trick in a debut tournament.

Somalia & Horn Security: UN warnings and Somalia’s inclusion in the worst child-violation lists kept Mogadishu in the spotlight, as the UN’s Children and Armed Conflict reporting flagged a record 38,558 grave violations in 2025 and said government forces were the leading perpetrators for the first time, with Somalia among the countries with the highest totals. Humanitarian Crisis: The UN’s FAO/WFP Hunger Hotspots report warned acute hunger will worsen across 13 hotspots between June and November 2026, adding Somalia to the highest-risk group as conflict, funding cuts, and climate shocks push millions closer to famine. Maritime Risks: Shipping remains under heightened threat, with renewed Houthi pressure in the Red Sea and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, while Somali piracy risk adds another layer for crews and supply chains. Somaliland–Israel Fallout: Somaliland’s leadership doubled down on Jerusalem diplomacy, with reports saying Israel and Somaliland cooperated “under the radar” for years and that a future Israeli military base is not ruled out—sparking renewed sovereignty concerns from Mogadishu. Governance & Local Administration: Banadir’s administration adopted its first law targeting Mogadishu’s cleanliness, signaling a new push for capital-level enforcement.

Somalia’s Hunger Warning: UN food agencies say acute hunger will worsen in 13 hotspots between June and November 2026, with Somalia newly flagged as famine-risk in Bay region, driven by conflict, funding cuts, and climate shocks. Mogadishu Governance: Banadir Governor and Mogadishu Mayor Muungaab signed Mogadishu’s first law targeting sanitation, waste management, and environmental protection, with penalties ranging from fines to license suspension. Fisheries Politics: Fisheries officials from Hirshabelle, South West, Jubaland, and Galmudug withdrew from drafting Somalia’s National Fisheries Stock Assessment Strategy, accusing the federal government of poor consultation and rushed implementation. Somaliland–Israel Fallout: Israel’s defense minister says cooperation with Somaliland has long been conducted “under the radar,” while Somaliland denies rumors of an Israeli military base; Somalia and regional bodies condemned Somaliland’s Jerusalem embassy opening. Piracy Crisis: Pakistani crew held by Somali pirates issued another urgent video plea as negotiations stall and conditions worsen, with ransom talks deadlocked.

Somalia–Israel/Somaliland Diplomatic Row: The Arab League and Arab Parliament both condemned Somaliland’s opening of an embassy in Jerusalem, calling it a violation of international law and a move that undermines Somalia’s sovereignty and the legal status of East Jerusalem. Somaliland Pushback: Somaliland rejected Mogadishu’s criticism, saying the federal government has no authority over its foreign relations and pointing to President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro’s state visit to Israel as proof of its growing diplomatic reach. Federal–State Fisheries Tension: Fisheries officials from Hirshabelle, South West, Jubaland and Galmudug withdrew from the National Fisheries Stock Assessment Strategy process, accusing the federal government of inadequate consultation and slow implementation. Piracy Hostage Crisis: Pakistani sailors held by Somali pirates for about two months renewed urgent appeals for rescue as ransom talks stall and conditions reportedly worsen. Humanitarian/Climate Pressure: UNICEF warned that almost all children worldwide face climate hazards, with Pakistan among the most vulnerable—an echo of the broader regional risks Somalia communities already feel.

Somalia-Israel Tensions: Mogadishu warned it may take “firm measures” after reports of Israeli engagement with Somaliland outside federal authority, calling it a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and urging UN and regional bodies to uphold international law. Somaliland Embassy in Jerusalem: Somaliland’s president inaugurated an embassy in occupied Jerusalem and signed a strategic cooperation declaration with Israel, drawing condemnation from Islamic countries and renewed diplomatic friction with Mogadishu. Pakistani Hostages: Pakistan’s law minister told parliament the government is pursuing diplomatic efforts to secure the release of 10 Pakistani citizens held hostage in Somalia, noting they are held by a non-state group and that Ishaq Dar and Pakistan’s mission in Djibouti are monitoring developments. World Cup Visa Fallout: FIFA said Somali referee Omar Artan will still receive his full tournament fee after the US denied him entry, while the White House defended the ban over claims he was in contact with “very bad people.”